Covid 19 information

[Glenn Brooks]

Iam thinking the Covid 19 pandemic is serious enuf to justify a special thread at the top of our forum. Many of our members are in the high risk group. As information is a necessity of life, I would like to propose we elevate a Covid 19 thread to the top of the forum, so folks can post their thoughts and their experiences; and read up on critical information updates from the medical experts.

For my own part, A Facebook “friend” and train enthusiast in rural Idaho is now fighting the virus. They won’t test him because he hasn’t travelled, but is symptomatic. He says so far the virus is like dying, except he hasn’t died. Painful and increasingly hard to breath.

Many others in our local club, including myself, are in the critical age group also.

I know most of us are taking this seriously, and sheltering in place. So, Just want to encourage everyone to double down on quantine, and self isolation procuredures, wherever you are, and help defeat this thing. To many jurisdictions are not doing near enuf to prepare. Don’t listen to those who still think this is fake news, or that it won’t happen in your area.

BE PROACTIVE FOR YOURSELF AND YOUR FAMILY. AND HELP YOUR NEIGHBORS WHO MAY NOT BE ABLE TO HELP THEMSELVES.

Below I’ve posted a few informational links and a summary of some key points that have been helpful to me, for understanding what the pandemic is doing. I particularly like the two you tube video links for there rational explanations of various aspects of the virus.

Here’s a brief summary of info and findings that most Public health experts are now talking about:

Probably most know Covid 19 is a serious threat to men in the 50-80+ age group.

The epidemiology is generally showing an 80%, 12%-15%, 5% spread of the infected population.

- 80% recover, with mild to moderate Symptoms.
-12-15% require medical treatment for severe symptoms,
- 5% have severe symptoms, e.g. bi lateral pneumonia, bacteria infections, organ failure.

The death rate is around 10x that of influenza.

Most of the medical experts I’ve heard, recommend rigorous self isolation, taking vitamin D, emphasizing fresh fruit and vegetable with meals are very important to guard against the virus.

I generally scoffed at vitamin D supplement until a few weeks ago when this thing started to take off. Now I take vitamin D and zinc every day, in recommend amounts. Apparently, nay, actually- vitamin D triggers your immune system - it’s sort of the fuel your body needs to optimize zinc for production of anti bodies in the event of a virus infection. In the northern latitudes, humans are generally vitamin D deficient in winter months, as the sun is low. The sun hits your skin and naturally produces the most vitamin D in summer months, while it is at or near zenith. Without vitamin D, your bodies natural zinc level isn’t sufficient to attack virus cells or block their reproduction. So take extra vitamin D, and a zinc supplement- they work together to promote immune response.

Here’s a couple of you tube channels that have wide following for their informative value, and sort of non hysterical coverage of the pandemic extent.

Dr. John Campbell, retired UK nursing instructor and Public Health expert:

https://youtu.be/He0TYPm3Prg

His previous videos talk in depth about vitamin D and zinc as critical elements in your body’s immune system.

Also, med cram, a physician education site is now covering the pandemic with daily updates, offering significant detail:

https://youtu.be/hPz5KxgI_K4

Here is their video on zinc and use of the old time malaria drug hydrozycholorquine, also known as Plaqinile.(sp.)

Please be safe out there and take ALL THE PRECAUTIONS YOU CAN - up your dietary intake of vitamin D, zinc, and like mom said “eat your fruits and vegetables,” uncooked to the extent possible. Stay isolated, practice social distancing, wash hands, disinfect hard surfaces, and quarantined from people, family, friends, who routinely still associate with crowds.

Flatten The Curve!

Glenn

[curtis cutter]

Thank you for posting this Glenn. It is important that we take this threat to our health seriously. As the planning section chief for our Lewis County incident management team we are dealing with a number of issues relating to this. We have not the issues (yet) that you guys have in King and Snohomish counties.

Being a more rural county, we have distance as a positive thing. We are not stacked one upon the other where we ride together on elevators to get to our houses. That being said, we have other situations. We have found many of our smaller communities rely upon volunteer first responders and due to the lack of young people volunteering these days, the ambulances will be frequently staffed by members in their 60's or 70's. Some are refusing to respond to 911 calls... That means your 911 response to a call for a cardiac event, auto accident or injury in your shop may not be as rapid as a month ago.

Currently, we are at two positives for our county. Both are receiving medical care. One was a man in his 80's and the other, discovered yesterday, a 20 year old male. Minimal contact by the 80 year old as he "didn't get out much" per family but the 20 year old is just now in the system and we are beginning the process of determining the exposure risk. A huge positive of the 20 YOM was that as soon as he felt ill he self quarantined himself, unlike the kids in Florida....

The strongest advice is to limit travel and be aware of the little things that can be a virus transfer means. Many of us seasoned folks are having others do our shopping, just remember that does not assure the items you are touching are not contaminated. Be cautious and careful but not to the point of paranoia. Take care of yourself. If you have preexisting concerns such as respiratory or cardiac issues have a good supply of meds you need. Take it easy and enjoy the spring.

Do everything you can to avoid the 911 call and trip to the local ER as they may not be able to provide the care you need and may in fact have something you do not want.

Gregg

[Glenn Brooks]

Thanks Curtis,

Your experience with your ambulance teams seems to reflect recent report from NYFD - that now has 150 first responders on quarantine due to virus symptoms. Very good advice about watching out for secondary contact. Thanks.

Also wanted to mention a second drug that has showed positive inhibition of the virus. The med cram update #41 has mention of the Japanese flu treatment Favipirpvir as being effective in reducing the virus load, fever, and shorter recovery than a placebo group. Something like free from symptoms in 4-5 days versus 11.5days. The study was conducted with 100 or so patients in China, this month, with the paper published in March, 2020.

Might be worth inquiring with your local health authorities if the emergency services teams could be considered for treatment with this or the hydroxycholorquine drug should they become symptomatic. If it reduces symptons and shortens recovery time, you gain healthy, immune ambulance crews early in the cycle.

Glenn

[STRR]

Please understand I support the COVID-19 precautions and preventive measures.

This is my attempt to bring a little perspective to the whole situation.

The CDC is reporting current (3/21/2020) COVID-19 U.S.A. total cases at 15,219 with 201 deaths in 61 days (first case reported on Jan. 20th)
These numbers indicate 3.2 deaths/day and 1.3% lethality. This is FAR from the 10% figure every agency seems to be throwing out. In defense of
the agencies the 10% may be the WORLDWIDE lethality rate but NOT that high in the U.S.A.

Compare those numbers to the CDC report for the flu season Sept-Dec 2019. The CDC reports 4.6 million cases with 2100 deaths in the U.S.A. for those 122 days. If my math is correct that makes 17.21 deaths/day and 0.045% lethality.

IF we look at some other terrible statistics a greater perspective may be had.
Suicides in the U.S.A. average 132/day.
Deaths related to traffic accidents for 2018 are reported to be 36,560 or 100 deaths/day. (2018 was the only year I found reliable numbers for a
whole year. This number may be higher or lower, I suspect higher, for 2019).

Summation of statistics for the U.S.A.:
COVID-19 201 deaths in 61 days, 3.2/day, 1.3% lethality
Flu 2100 deaths in 122 days, 17.21/day, 0.045% lethality
Suicide deaths 132/day, 100% lethality
Traffic-related deaths in 2018 36,560, 100/day, 100% lethatlity

It is my belief most of the "hype" is somewhat unjustified. The entire country is taking more drastic measures for COVID-19 than they do for any other major cause of deaths. As I said earlier: I support the COVID-19 precautions and preventive measures.

I hope this brings things a little bit more into focus. If you have read this far, THANK YOU.

Be SAFE, Be Happy, Protect Yourself AND your Loved ones.

Good Luck,
Terry Miller

[liveaboard]

Suicide attempts are not 100% fatal, and neither are traffic accidents. Your number are biased.
Regular flu deaths are overwhelmingly those with significant weakening due to pre-existing conditions. Covid 19 kills those too, but also many healthy working people.

Deaths are low because it's just the beginning. The US is at the bottom of the curve.
New infections take a couple of weeks to show, and another week or two before death occurs in those patients who succumb.
So whatever is done today, or not done, will only show in the statistics in 3 weeks.
Check the death rate for Italy, and what it was 3 weeks ago.

There will be plenty of people left alive when this is done. 98% of those infected will likely survive, and not everyone will get infected. This is not the zombie apocalypse.

It is a massive killer though; if the final infection rate is 80%, and 2% of the infected US population die, that will be 5 million people.
This is not a flu.

This may seem ridiculous to us because we've never seen anything like this in our short little lives, but historically it's not at all unique. Epidemics wiped out big chunks of population in the past many times.
Epidemiologists have been shouting at us to prepare for such a disease, but no one listened. Just more doom saying scientists defending their corner.

Medical science will likely come up with a vaccine or an effective treatment fairly soon, so hopefully after a while this disease will stop being so disruptive, and become just one of the thousands of known diseases we deal with.

[STRR]

Liveaboard,

To address your comments. The numbers I quoted ARE the ACTUAL DEATH numbers reported by the appropriate agencies and NOT the total accidents or cases of illness reported. The number of cases and accidents are both significantly higher, as one would expect and is being shown to be true with the COVID-19 pandemic where the total number of reported cases worldwide as of 2 pm 3/21/'20 are: 267,013 cases with 11,201 DEATHS.

Deaths are low in the US due to one overriding asset: The BEST healthcare system in the world. While the actual health of the American citizen may not be near the top of the list, our doctors may be surpassed by other countries, all in all, our healthcare system provides the absolutely BEST to the people, most widely and faster than ANY other country in the world. THIS is one of the biggest reasons the US death toll is as low as it is. The death toll in other countries is truly scary. Your comment about statistics is irrelevant since the reports are basically the same worldwide and my comments are based on the reported numbers of today and not 3 weeks ago or what they might be in the future.

Your numbers for infection rate and potential death rate are correct for your assumption of 80% infection. To date, I am NOT aware of ANY country reporting an 80% infection rate.

You are totally wrong, the Coronavirus IS just another strain of the flu, the same as MERS, and SARS. ACTUALLY, Coronavirus is a different form of SARS and is also referred to as SARS-CoV-2 by the CDC.

You are TOTALLY correct about epidemics wiping out huge chunks of the human race in the past. One of the more recent epidemics was the Spanish Flu plague of 1918-1920 where it infected some 500 million (25% of the population of the world at that time) with 17 million to possibly 100 million deaths. The reporting of that age leaves much to be desired in terms of accuracy. With a world population of 2 billion death rate at 17 million would be 0.85%, at 100 million would be 5%. That's IF my math is correct and I am not a mathematician. The biggest problem with this virus is the fact that it is new and was not known to infect humans.

You are also correct with your statements about a cure and or prevention. It's just a matter of time.

My intent is to bring the COVID-19 problem into a proper perspective and try to minimize the panic mentality occuring today.

[liveaboard]

COVID-19 201 deaths in 61 days, 3.2/day, 1.3% lethality
Flu 2100 deaths in 122 days, 17.21/day, 0.045% lethality
Suicide deaths 132/day, 100% lethality
Traffic-related deaths in 2018 36,560, 100/day, 100% lethatlity

Terry Miller

You state that suicide and traffic death is 100% fatal, but covid 19 is 1.3% fatal; yes death is 100% fatal.
When you use figures in that way it's misleading. You are not comparing like with like. That's what I object to.

They keep saying not to panic, then we hear that spring break kids are unafraid and hanging out together as always.
Panic is a dirty word; but good old fear exists for good reason. Fear keeps us alive.
I like fear, when I find myself doing something dangerous [not abnormal for me], I imagine what could happen, find fear, and embrace it.

Be afraid, it's ok.

[STRR]

Please look at the NUMBER of deaths and the number per day. These are the most important numbers. I agree the percentages are not equal since I do not have the total number of suicide attempts versus the actual deaths. I have been unable to find any respectable source that cites the number of attempts. Also, it is impossible to cite the total number of traffic accidents in the US as it will be astronomical with many not being reported. Again, I am just posting the number who have died and the percentage is not such an important item.

In an attempt to solve the inequities of the above, I specifically cited the number of deaths PER day. I believe that the number is comparable.

COVID-19 deaths 3.2 per day
Flu deaths 17.21 per day
Traffic deaths 100 per day
Suicide deaths 132 per day

I believe this should set a perspective. These are the CURRENT statistics and are subject to change at any time. As reported by the CDC that flu cases and deaths are fewer in the last month or so, most likely to more people washing their hands as recommended. As the number of COVID-19 cases rises, so will the number of deaths. The panic we have seen in the last month and are seeing now will most likely diminish as time goes on and people become more aware of the actual situation.

As for the Spring Break students, I believe you could ask any of them about their behavior. The answer will indicate their invincibility in some way. But when one of their close friends gets sick or dies, that will crash the invincibility attitude for a short time. Only age will bring wisdom no matter how much we try to share our acquired knowledge. This has been the way of man since the first man was born.

[NP317]

Far more important than the daily death count from Covid-19 are the huge numbers of cases filling health care facilities,
draining societal resources and making care givers ill. Every bed with a Covid-19 patient is not available to all those others in need.
I worked in Health Care for 22 years and find this to be very troubling. More so than the death count which is still too high.

And the relatively low number of cause in the US is a false flag, due to the incredibly low testing rates compared to other nations.
That should never have happened, given past existing government pandemic preparedness organizations that are now INOP.
RussN

[Harold_V]

Don't panic, but anyone who isn't concerned (you can call it scared) is simply ignoring the truth. Do you really think that will help? When's the last time you hit your finger with a hammer and you ignored it and it went away?

Sure, only 3.2 deaths per day with Covid 19. But when you compare the number of infected as compared to the number of flu infected, you can expect that 3.2 deaths to increase to an alarming number.

It's simply not representative to consider the deaths based on that, as the percentage of infected people is extremely low right now. When this virus is as commonplace as the flu, equally spread, I strongly suspect that you can look towards a 10% fatality rate, as care will, by then, be non-existent due to an overwhelmed and failed health care system. Doesn't matter that we may be the best in the world----not when there's no longer a bed for the ill.

Those who are dismissing this virus should take a serious look at what's happening right now in Italy. They are experiencing deaths at an alarming rate. By sharp contrast, Russia has very few cases, and it's not spreading quickly as it is in most other countries. South Korea, likewise, seems to have a handle on the situation. That's the reason EVERYONE should be concerned, as evidence supports the notion that nipping it in the bud early allows for control. Once the genie is out of the bottle, it's pretty difficult to get it back in.

Dismissing this virus by pretending it is of little consequence is the precise reason it will prevail. Can you not see that? That's what evidence supports.

Be concerned. Be scared. Take action. Be safe.

H

[Glenn Brooks]

Just for FYI, there are generally three sets of numbers that are widely reported by public health experts around the world:

1) 70% of the worlds population is likely to contract the virus.

2) the death rate from this virus is 10x that of influenza, higher if you are age 50-80+

3) of those who become infected, the actual rate of contagion severity is: 80/15/5.

Meaning:
- 80% of infected people experience mild to moderate symptoms of the virus.
-12-15% experience severe symptoms, requiring on average 11.5 days hospital medical treatment.
- 5% experience critical, life threatening symptoms, requiring advanced ICU level treatment.

If you are in the age group 50 - 80, the numbers go thru the roof. For example 15% + fatality rate for those 80 and older. 8% morbidity for those 70-79. Men are dying at 2x the rate of women.

Currently 46% of all Covid 19 admissions to ICU in Italy result in death. 647 people died yesterday in italy from this virus alone.

comparisons with suicides, accidental death etc are not in any way relevant.

The reality is we haven’t yet reached even the first stage of contagion here in the U.S. Now, health experts say EVERYONE IS AT RISK OF BECOMING INFECTED! And, without extreme isolation and quarantine measures, 70% of the world population will become infected before its all over.

So you can do the math on the current US population of 350m and see the the possible number of required hospitalizations is around (.15 x 250 million) = 37 million people, with 5% - 12 million people needing intensive care (ICU) for bi lateral phenomena, upper and lower respiratory infection, septis, and organ failure. (12 million).

We have 960,000 hospital beds TOTAL, in the United States. Over the coming two months of peak contagion we have available about 2,000,000 bed days available to treat 37,000,000 seriously ill people.

Of that total, we have 50,000 - 90,000 total ICU beds, or less.

Where do think 49 million critically ill people are going go to get treatment that saves their life? What do think will happen to the death rate when no treatment is available to them?

If there is any good news in any of this, it is that self isolation, proper quarantine, and careful, rigorous personal hygiene can knock this thing in the head. Hand washing, stay away from public spaces, wear a mask and QUARANTINE YOURSELF AND CLOSE CONTACTS FOR 14 DAYS IF SICK, can lower the impact and spread out the tidal wave of contagion about to hit our un prepared health care system.

Please, be safe out there. Flatten the Curve, We all need to get through this.

Glenn

[curtis cutter]

Along the C-19 line, I saw a memo from Harbor Freight that they are donating their total inventory of face shields, N95 masks and gloves to hospital emergency rooms.